On Thursday, July 30, 2026, the latest survey from Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting, or SMRC, placed West Java Governor Dedi Mulyadi at the top of its latest presidential preference simulation. Dedi received 35% support in the semi-open survey, while President Prabowo Subianto came next with 14.5%. The result has drawn attention because Dedi's support has increased sharply compared with SMRC's previous survey.
The survey was conducted from July 5 to 19, 2026, with 749 respondents aged 17 and above across Indonesia. Participants were selected using a double-sampling method, with interviews conducted both face to face and by telephone. SMRC reported a margin of error of approximately 3.7% at a 95% confidence level. The findings were presented online by SMRC Executive Director Deni Irvani on Wednesday, July 29. 6
In the semi-open simulation, Dedi Mulyadi received 35%, followed by Prabowo Subianto at 14.5%. Anies Baswedan was next with 8.2%, followed by Gibran Rakabuming Raka at 7.7%, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono at 4.9%, Ganjar Pranowo at 4.2%, Mahfud MD at 4%, Puan Maharani at 1.3%, Sherly Tjoanda Laos at 1.2%, Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa at 1.1%, and Surya Paloh at 1%. Another 12.8% of respondents were undecided or declined to answer. 7
Dedi's increase is particularly notable when compared with SMRC's November 2025 survey. At that time, his support stood at 19.5%. In the latest survey, it had risen to 35%. Prabowo's figure moved in the opposite direction, falling from 34.9% to 14.5%. SMRC Executive Director Deni Irvani described the shift as notable, especially because Prabowo is the incumbent president who only recently won the presidential election. 8
The survey is also significant because Dedi's name was tested in a national sample rather than only among voters in West Java, his home political base. The 35% figure therefore reflects the preferences recorded among the respondents included in SMRC's nationwide survey, alongside other political figures being considered in the simulation. 9
The findings have quickly become part of the political conversation because Dedi is not only the governor of West Java but also a Gerindra politician. Several national media outlets have highlighted the rise in his numbers as a new development in the early political landscape ahead of the 2029 presidential election. Still, one poll should not be treated as a forecast of the eventual election result. There is still a long political road ahead, and voter preferences can change substantially. 10
There is also an important clarification regarding survey figures attributed to Indikator Politik Indonesia. On July 30, 2026, Tempo reported that Indikator said it had not released a presidential electability survey in July 2026. Because of that clarification, the figures that can be firmly attributed here are the SMRC results, rather than the separate Indikator numbers that had circulated in some reports. 11
For now, the result places Dedi Mulyadi among the most talked-about names in the early discussion surrounding the 2029 presidential race. But the survey should be understood as a snapshot of public opinion during the July 5–19 fieldwork period, not as a prediction of who will ultimately win the next presidential election.
