El Nino is expected to remain active in Indonesia into early 2027, according to the latest update fr... El Nino is expected to remain active in Indonesia into early 2027, according to the latest update from the country's Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency, or BMKG. On Thursday, July 30, 2026, BMKG said the phenomenon could reach strong intensity and contribute to drier-than-normal conditions in parts of the country.
BMKG chief Teuku Faisal Fathani said the El Nino pattern could also coincide with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, or IOD, between September and December 2026. That combination could influence rainfall patterns and increase the risk of prolonged dry conditions in several parts of Indonesia.
By mid-July, BMKG recorded 509 seasonal zones, covering about 54.5% of Indonesia's land area, that had already entered the dry season. Much of Java, Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Papua were among the areas experiencing the transition into the dry period. The agency expects August and September to be the main peak of the 2026 dry season in many areas.
The bigger concern is the duration. BMKG estimates that 437 seasonal zones could experience a longer dry season than usual. That could put additional pressure on water supplies, especially in areas where access to water is already limited during the dry months.
The agency has also recorded around 4,900 hotspots by the end of July. With drier conditions becoming more dominant, the risk of forest and land fires is expected to rise, making early prevention increasingly important.
To prepare for the potential impact, BMKG is strengthening weather modification operations in areas considered vulnerable, including South Sumatra, Central Kalimantan, and Riau, with supporting operations based in West Java. The effort involves coordination with disaster management, security, forestry, and environmental agencies.
The forecast doesn't mean every part of Indonesia will remain hot and dry every day. Rain can still occur locally, but the latest warning means communities and authorities need to pay closer attention to water availability, drought risks, and the possibility of forest and land fires as the dry season progresses.See More
BMKG Prediksi El Nino Bertahan Hingga Awal 2027
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BMKG Prediksi El Nino Bertahan Hingga Awal 2027 (Image: Negeri Konoha)
El Nino is expected to remain active in Indonesia into early 2027, according to the latest update fr... See More
